This year’s index recorded a significant decline in terrorism worldwide. Deaths from terrorism fell by 28 percent to 5,582, while the number of attacks fell by almost 22 percent to 2,944. The improvement was broad-based, with 81 countries recording improvements. Only 19 countries had a worse situation, the fewest deteriorations in the index’s history. However, a significant increase in terrorism was seen in Western countries, accounting for seven of the 19 deteriorations.
It is not yet clear whether the improvements recorded in 2025 will be sustained. Given the current state of emerging global conflicts, an increase in terrorism is likely.
ISIS and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organization in 2025, although the group was active in fewer countries, declining from 22 to 15. The four deadliest terrorist organizations in 2025 were ISIS, Jamaat-e-Nusra-ul-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Shabaab. Together, they were responsible for 3,869 deaths, or 70 percent of all terrorism-related deaths. Three of the four groups recorded a decrease in deaths, and TTP was the only group to record an increase in deaths.
Terrorism remains highly concentrated. Just under 70 percent of deaths from terrorism occur in just five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Six of the ten countries most affected by terrorism are in sub-Saharan Africa, now the global epicenter of terrorism.
For the first time, Pakistan recorded the highest score on the index and is the country most affected by terrorism. This sharp increase in terrorist activity is partly due to the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021.
Pakistan’s tense relations with its neighbors, coupled with increased violence from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), have created significant security risks. Terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan are now at their highest level since 2013, with the country recording 1,139 terrorism-related deaths and 1,045 terrorist incidents in 2025.
Nigeria recorded the largest increase in 2025, with the number of fatalities increasing by 46% to 750. The Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram were responsible for 80% of all deaths from terrorism in the country.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also recorded a significant increase in terrorism, reaching its worst ranking on the index. Deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo rose by almost 28 percent to 467, driven by attacks by the ISIS-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) that targeted civilians, churches, hospitals and funerals.
Colombia was among the top ten worst-hit countries for the first time since 2013. Deaths from terrorism in Colombia rose by 70 percent and attacks increased by almost 47 percent, led mainly by the opposition factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). Both groups have adopted drone warfare, drawing direct inspiration from field innovations seen in Ukraine, with 77 drone attacks recorded between 2024 and 2025.
Deaths in sub-Saharan Africa fell in ten countries while increasing in only four. Deaths in the Sahel region account for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally.
Five countries in the Sahel region saw a decrease in both the number of deaths and incidents compared to the previous year. Nigeria was the only country in the region to experience an increase in both categories. Burkina Faso, the country most affected in 2023 and 2024, recorded the largest reduction in deaths globally, with the number of deaths falling by 686, or 45 percent. Despite this decrease, the number of fatalities increased, reflecting a pattern of fewer but more deadly attacks. The main driver of this decrease was a sharp decline in civilian casualties, which fell by 84 percent.
The year was marked by a lack of large-scale attacks globally. The deadliest attack killed 120 people, compared to 237 in 2024 and more than 1,100 in 2023. It was also the only attack in 2025 to kill more than 100 people, compared to five attacks of this magnitude the previous year. The average death toll also fell from 2.1 to 1.8 deaths per attack.
ISIS continues to operate as a global network with little affiliation. In 2025, the group was active in 15 countries across six regions. Despite a 15 percent decline in the number of attacks attributed to the group, ISIS was responsible for just under 17 percent of all attacks worldwide. There has been a significant shift in the group’s regional focus: attacks in sub-Saharan Africa nearly doubled in the past year, from 111 to 221 incidents, while attacks in the Middle East and North Africa fell by 39 percent.
Syria experienced the most ISIS attacks, with 238 incidents. The collapse of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria, the withdrawal of US forces, and mass escapes from detention camps where former ISIS fighters were held are likely to shape the security environment in Syria and Iraq in 2026. Nigeria saw a significant increase in ISIS activity, with ISIS attacks increasing from 20 in 2024 to 92 in 2025.
Al-Shabaab, while seeing a decline in terrorism-related deaths for the third consecutive year, launched its Shabelle offensive in early 2025, capturing government positions across central Somalia. By mid-year, the group had advanced to within 50 kilometers of Mogadishu. The offensive exploited the transition between African Union peacekeeping missions, political divisions between the federal government and regional states, and an arms pipeline from Yemen’s Houthis.
The increasingly fragmented global political environment, as described in the IEP’s “Great Fragmentation” report, is reflected in a rise in politically motivated terrorist attacks, which are expected to increase by almost 20 percent by 2025. South America accounts for 75 percent of all terrorist deaths linked to political ideology. Despite the high media attention to attacks in the West, the primary driver of terrorism remains conflict. Only one percent of terrorism-related deaths in 2025 occurred outside countries involved in conflict.
In the West, deaths from terrorism rose sharply, up 280% to 57. The increase was largely driven by several mass-casualty attacks, including the New Orleans truck attack in the United States in January and the Bondi Beach shooting in Australia in December. The Bondi Beach attack, carried out by two jihadist extremists who killed 15 people in a targeted attack on Australian Jews, is now the country’s worst terrorist attack and deadliest mass shooting since 1996. Several other high-profile attacks in the West have been politically motivated, including the assassination of American conservative political figure Charlie Kirk and the murder of two Israeli embassy staff in Washington, D.C.
External extremism has emerged as one of the most significant security concerns in the West. Youth and minors accounted for 42% of all terrorism-related investigations in Europe and North America in 2025, a threefold increase from 2021. The average time to radicalization has decreased dramatically, with radicalization now occurring within weeks, driven by short-term online advertising, algorithmic reinforcement, and exploitation of young people’s developmental vulnerabilities.
The motivations for youth radicalization vary by region. In the West, alienation and social isolation are key factors. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, 71 percent of recruits cited joining a violent extremist group as a deterrent, while a quarter cited a complete lack of job opportunities.
In the West, it is estimated that 87% of minors who become radicalized have a history of neglect or psychological abuse, while 77% have a history of abandonment. Terrorist attacks involving human rights abuses by state security forces are also much more likely to be thwarted because minors are involved, with 97% of these attacks being foiled by security services between
2022-2025, compared to 68% for adult-only plots. 93% of deadly terrorist attacks in the West in the past five years have been carried out by lone individuals, and they are three times more likely to succeed than groups of two or more.
Proximity to the border is a defining feature of modern terrorism. More than 41 percent of terrorist attacks occurred within 50 kilometers of an international border, and 64 percent within 100 kilometers. Terrorism in border areas has become more common in the past 15 years, with attacks occurring more than 100 kilometers from the border declining from 38 percent in 2011 to 23 percent in 2025.
Border regions represent gaps in authority where state control is weakest, and the inability of states to effectively manage cross-border counterinsurgency operations has been a key factor in the spread of terrorism in various regions. Several of the world’s most enduring terrorist hotspots are concentrated along border regions, including the Colombia-Venezuela border, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions, the Central Sahel Tri-Centre region, and the Lake Chad basin. Cross-border militant activity in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions was a major factor in the escalation of open conflict between the two countries in February 2026.
Despite a significant decline in deaths from terrorism, the findings of the 2026 Index highlight the changing nature of global terrorism. While overall levels of terrorism are declining, the increasing concentration of attacks in border areas, rising youth radicalization, and the spread of terrorist activity across sub-Saharan Africa highlight the persistent and adaptive nature of the threat.
At the time of writing, the geopolitical landscape has deteriorated sharply, and the outlook for terrorism in 2026 is worrying. In sub-Saharan Africa, the gains made over the past year have overshadowed the territorial gains made by jihadists. They are reducing their terrorist attacks on civilians in an effort to win hearts and minds and consolidate their newly acquired territories. They are also expanding their operations by imposing economic blockades on major cities.
In South Asia, long-standing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated into open conflict in February 2026, with Pakistan declaring a state of war and conducting airstrikes on Kabul and Kandahar. Open conflict between the two countries is likely to cause population displacement, weaken border control, and create security vacuums in which groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province have historically thrived.
In Syria, ISIS announced a new phase of its operations in late February 2026. The mass escape of more than 20,000 people from detention centers where ISIS-affiliated fighters and their families were being held earlier this year highlights one of the most significant emerging terrorism threats globally.
The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, greatly increases the risk of future terrorism. Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on Israel and US allies in the Persian Gulf, combined with the country’s long-standing ties to proxy networks including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, mean that the consequences of this escalation will affect the entire region and beyond. The risk of proxy-inspired terrorist attacks against US, Israeli, and allied interests, both in the Middle East and in Western countries, has increased significantly.
In the West, the underlying conditions that led to a 280 percent increase in terrorism-related deaths in 2025 are unlikely to abate. Political polarization, rising anti-Semitic violence, and the rapid radicalization of youth online continue to create an environment in which terrorism remains a serious threat. Taken together, these converging crises suggest that the global recovery in terrorism recorded in 2025 may be a temporary reprieve for many countries, rather than the beginning of a sustained downward trend.
